The cryptocurrency market, valued at over $3 trillion in March 2025, is a land of opportunity—and peril. On March 26, 2025, Chris Solarz, Chief Investment Officer at Amitis Capital, delivered a stark warning: 99% of crypto tokens are destined to crash to zero. Published by CoinDesk, this fund manager prediction from a seasoned investor has sparked debate about the sustainability of the current crypto boom. With about 40 million tokens circulating, Solarz’s outlook remains bleak for most digital assets. However, he sees hedge funds thriving in what he describes as a “golden age” for crypto investing.
A Nascent Market with Old Strategies
Solarz, whose firm manages a crypto-focused fund of funds, sees advantages in the sector’s immaturity. Unlike traditional finance, where 10,000 hedge funds oversee $5 trillion, crypto has just 1,650 funds managing $88 billion. With lower competition, managers can revive trading strategies abandoned in TradFi due to market saturation. For instance, he notes that crypto’s volatility and inefficiencies create “asymmetric opportunities” unseen in mature markets. Yet, this edge doesn’t extend to the tokens themselves.
The Chris Solarz crypto thesis hinges on a brutal reality: most tokens lack long-term value. “I meet 20 managers… 19 out of 20 don’t deserve to be running money,” he told CoinDesk, critiquing the influx of inexperienced players. He estimates only 100 tokens merit attention, with the rest doomed by poor fundamentals or oversupply—a looming crypto tokens crash that could redefine the market.
The Overhang of Token Unlocks
A key driver of this dire crypto market outlook is the massive token unlocks scheduled over the next three years. Solarz predicts these will flood the top 100 tokens with supply, requiring a $300 billion injection to sustain current prices. With the liquid token market for hedge funds at just $30 billion and retail traders flocking to memecoins, he sees no buyers to absorb this deluge. “This is why there can’t be an altcoin bull market for some time,” he asserts. Historically, venture capital has outpaced liquid funds fivefold in crypto, masking losses via illiquid valuations—a dynamic Amitis Capital avoids by focusing on liquid strategies.
A Golden Age Amid the Wreckage
Despite the bleak token forecast, Solarz sees a silver lining for hedge funds. He likens today’s crypto market to TradFi’s 1990s, when 127 funds managed $39 billion with room to outperform. Today’s crypto hedge funds, he argues, can exploit inefficiencies unavailable in crowded traditional markets. Amitis allocates across venture funds, liquid directional bets, and market-neutral strategies, prioritizing process and risk management over hype-driven theses. This adaptability, Solarz believes, positions skilled managers to thrive even as most tokens falter.
The Endgame: Integration or Oblivion
Solarz envisions a future where crypto integrates fully into finance, much like the internet did post-dot-com bubble. He predicts Bitcoin could rival gold’s market cap within a decade, but altcoins face a steeper road. The 99% failure rate echoes the dot-com era, where most ventures vanished, yet survivors like Amazon reshaped the world. For now, the crypto tokens crash looms as a reckoning for speculative excess, with only fundamentally sound projects likely to endure.
Conclusion
Chris Solarz’s fund manager prediction—that 99% of crypto tokens will hit zero—casts a shadow over the market’s exuberance in 2025. While hedge funds capitalize on a nascent sector, the vast majority of tokens face extinction, weighed down by unlocks and weak demand. Investors beware: in this crypto market outlook, opportunity and oblivion walk hand in hand.
