Introduction
The first week of April 2025 kicked off with a major shock for global financial markets as Bitcoin (BTC) suddenly dropped below $75,000. Simultaneously, global stock indices turned red, prompting investors to draw comparisons to the historic 1987 Black Monday crash and the COVID-19 market meltdown.
Bitcoin Breaks $75,000 Support: Bullish Trend at Risk
Bitcoin plunged below $75,000—the lowest level since November 2024. This drop revived the 2021 all-time high of $69,000 as a key support zone. It’s a clear sign that the long-term uptrend is at a tipping point between recovery and breakdown.
Market analyst Kevin Svenson called this “BTC’s last chance to maintain its macro bullish structure.” If this level is lost, Bitcoin may fall back into an extended accumulation zone, crushing hopes of new all-time highs in 2025.
Death Cross Appears, Hinting at Deepening Downtrend
It’s not just price action that’s worrying. A bearish technical pattern known as the Death Cross—when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average—has formed on the daily BTC chart, signaling the possibility of a prolonged downtrend.
At the same time, trader CrypNuevo noted that BTC has fallen below its 50-week EMA, around $77,000. According to him, this activates short-sell triggers. However, if Bitcoin regains this level quickly, it could be a fakeout and may fuel a rebound toward $87,000. Currently, Bitcoin is recovering at the $79,910 level.
U.S. Trade Policy Shocks Global Financial Markets
While crypto investors watched BTC’s price, traditional markets were rattled by news of new U.S. trade tariffs set to take effect on April 9. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed these measures would proceed without delay.
Tariffs could disrupt global supply chains and sharply increase commodity prices—fueling inflationary pressures. Fears of a “second inflation shock” are now shaking both equities and risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.
Markets Expect Earlier Fed Rate Cut
Despite inflation risks, markets are increasingly pricing in an early rate cut from the Federal Reserve to avoid deeper recession. Key U.S. inflation data—March CPI and PPI—are set to be released on April 10–11, and could heavily influence the Fed’s next policy move.
On platforms like Polymarket, odds of a May rate cut are surging, surpassing expectations for June. Prominent investor Anthony Pompliano warned: if the Fed doesn’t act soon amid weakening markets and subdued inflation, the U.S. economy could face a severe and prolonged downturn.
Retail Investors Capitulate as Fear Dominates Sentiment
As major institutions adopt a wait-and-see approach, retail investors—the backbone of previous crypto rallies—are losing patience and liquidity. Many are forced into panic selling.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has recently plummeted to multi-month lows, indicating a surge in market fear. On April 7, 2025, the index stood at 23, reflecting “Extreme Fear,” a significant drop from 34 just a week prior. This downward trend underscores the prevailing apprehension among investors.
Conclusion: Is a New Black Monday Forming?
It’s too early to confirm whether we’re witnessing a repeat of Black Monday 1987, but current conditions— technical breakdowns, shaken investor sentiment, and macroeconomic risks — are forming a perfect storm. Bitcoin and global markets now stand on the edge of a major correction. The only question is: who will survive, and who will be swept away?
