The cryptocurrency market is full of cycles, and altcoin season is one of the most anticipated phases for traders and investors. However, despite widespread expectations for an explosive altcoin season in 2025, the Altcoin Season Index remains low, indicating that Bitcoin is still dominating the market. Many analysts and investors had expected 2025 to be a major year for altcoins, based on trends seen in 2024. However, the current data suggests otherwise. So, what’s causing this delay? In this article, we’ll explore why the index is low, the factors keeping altcoins from surging, and how to position yourself for when altcoin season truly kicks off.
What is Altcoin Season?
Altcoin season (often called “alt season”) is a period in the crypto market when altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin (BTC) in terms of price growth. This happens when capital moves away from Bitcoin into alternative cryptocurrencies, leading to explosive gains in smaller-cap projects. But how do you know when altcoin season is starting? Here are some of the key indicators.
Indicators That Altcoin Season Has Begun:
- Altcoin Season is a period when alternative coins tend to significantly increase in price compared to Bitcoin, often occurring after BTC reaches its peak and enters an accumulation phase.
- Bitcoin Dominance Drops is also a sign. When Bitcoin’s dominance in the market declines, it means more money is flowing into altcoins.
- Bitcoin Halving 2024 is predicted to be the main catalyst for triggering Altcoin Season 2025, as capital flows from BTC to promising altcoins.
- The Altcoin Season Index (ASI) defines altcoin season when 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
- Capital flows during altcoin season typically follow the pattern: Bitcoin → Top Altcoin → Mid/Low Cap, creating profit opportunities at each distinct stage.
- Altcoin Season 2025 is expected to explode strongly due to the rapid development of AI, DeFi, and Web3, along with the wave of real-world blockchain applications.
From: Block Chain Center
Why is the Altcoin Season Index Low?
1. Bitcoin’s Dominance is Still High
Bitcoin has seen strong institutional inflows, especially after the launch of BTC ETFs. These ETFs have directed billions of dollars into Bitcoin, keeping its dominance high. Since altcoin season occurs when Bitcoin’s dominance decreases, the fact that BTC remains the primary focus of investors means altcoins haven’t had their breakout moment yet.
Learn more about Bitcoin’s Dominance here
2. Weakening Altcoin Performance
The Altcoin Season Index measures how many of the top 100 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days. A recent index value of 27 suggests that only 27 out of the top 100 altcoins have outperformed BTC. This is a clear sign that altcoins are struggling to gain momentum.
3. Lack of Strong Altcoin Narratives
Previous altcoin seasons were driven by strong narratives, such as:
- 2020: DeFi Summer (AAVE, UNI, COMP)
- 2021: NFT and Metaverse Boom (AXS, SAND, MANA)
- 2023: AI Tokens Surge (RNDR, AGIX, FET)
In 2025, there hasn’t been a single, dominant altcoin narrative yet. Meme coins and gaming tokens have seen some success, but the broader market is waiting for a more convincing trend before capital rotates into altcoins.
4. Market Sentiment and Economic Conditions
Macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, and liquidity conditions play a huge role in risk asset investments. If central banks keep interest rates high, riskier investments like altcoins see less demand. Investors are still cautious about where they put their money, favoring Bitcoin and Ethereum over lower-cap coins.
5. Timing of Market Cycles
Crypto market cycles do not always follow an exact timeline. In past bull runs:
- Bitcoin led the rally, as it price will be the first to grow significantly
- Once the growth slows down, top altcoins like ETH, SOL, ADA, XPR… will begins to grow as the money got poured into it
- Only after Bitcoin stabilized did smaller altcoins begin to pump.
At the beginning of 2025, the market experienced a dramatic drop as Bitcoin plunged from a peak of $109k to $76k. This sharp decline led to significant losses in many altcoins, with some investor’s portfolios being cut in half or even by two-thirds, causing widespread concern about an impending downtrend.However, Bitcoin is currently holding a critical support level between $75k and $77k. This key support zone has long-term investors hopeful for a potential breakout in BTC and the onset of a strong altcoin season later this year.
What This Means for Altcoin Investors
Just because the Altcoin Season Index is low doesn’t mean altcoin season won’t happen. Here’s what investors should do in this phase of the market.
1. Be Patient – The Rotation Will Happen
History has shown that altcoin seasons always follow Bitcoin bull runs, but the timing varies. Investors should stay prepared for when the rotation happens.
2. Focus on Strong Altcoins
When alt season kicks in, quality projects will lead the charge. Here are some of the best altcoins to watch:
Ethereum (ETH) – The King of Smart Contracts
Ethereum remains the most important altcoin, benefiting from increasing institutional adoption and network upgrades.
Solana (SOL) – The Fastest Blockchain
Solana has seen huge growth, especially in the NFT and DeFi space. Its speed and low fees make it a top contender for gains in alt season.
BNB (BNB) – The Exchange Powerhouse
BNB, the native token of Binance, dominates the exchange ecosystem with strong utility, including trading fee discounts and DeFi integrations. Its steady growth is backed by Binance’s global influence.
XRP (XRP) – The Leader in Cross-Border Payments
XRP, powered by Ripple, is designed for fast and low-cost international transactions. With ongoing regulatory developments, it remains a strong player in the payments sector.
Cardano (ADA) – The Research-Driven Blockchain
Cardano stands out with its scientific approach to blockchain development. Its focus on scalability and sustainability makes it a long-term contender in the crypto space.
3. Watch Bitcoin’s Dominance
One of the best indicators for when alt season will start is Bitcoin dominance. If BTC dominance drops below 50%, expect money to flow into altcoins.
4. Manage Risk – Don’t Go All In
Even though altcoins have high profit potential, they are also very volatile. Use strategies like:
- Diversifying your portfolio across large- and small-cap coins.
- Taking profits as prices rise instead of holding forever.
- Using stop-loss orders to protect against sudden market crashes.
Final Thoughts: When Will Altcoin Season Start?
Although the Altcoin Season Index is still low, this does not mean that alt season won’t happen. Instead, we are likely in a pre-alt season phase, where Bitcoin is still dominating. As history has shown, altcoins usually lag behind Bitcoin but then experience massive rallies once BTC stabilizes. Keep track of Bitcoin news here
Key Takeaways:
1. Bitcoin dominance remains high, preventing a full alt season. 2. Altcoin narratives are still forming, but meme coins and gaming tokens show potential.
3. Economic conditions play a role in delaying altcoin season.
4. The best approach is to stay patient, track BTC dominance, and position yourself early in strong altcoins like ETH, SOL, PEAP, and PUBD.
